Understanding the risks associated with traveling to certain countries is essential for informed decision-making, whether for leisure, adventure, or business. By examining the unique challenges in different regions, you can take proactive steps to protect yourself, and in some cases, decide to postpone or cancel your trip based on the current danger level.
Danger, in the context of travel, can be defined as the exposure to potential injury, harm, or loss, combined with the likelihood of such events occurring. At Global Guardian, we assess danger through the lens of risk, which balances the probability of a harmful event with the severity of its impact. Therefore, the most dangerous countries are those with the highest overall travel risk, where both the likelihood and extent of harm to a traveler are significantly elevated.
Defining a “Dangerous Country” for Travel
To accurately assess the travel risk in a country, we consider a range of quantitative and qualitative factors. These include crime rates, health risks, the prevalence of natural disasters, infrastructure quality, levels of conflict, civil unrest, and the threat of terrorism. Using these indicators, weighted with our proprietary methodology, we categorize countries into five risk levels, from Low to Extreme:
- Low Risk: These countries are highly stable with a strong rule of law, capable of managing internal and external security threats effectively.
- Moderate Risk: These resilient countries can quickly and effectively manage crises and threats to personal security.
- Medium Risk: These countries are not entirely secure, with political tensions and inadequate law enforcement leading to potential sporadic unrest.
- High Risk: These countries experience ongoing conflict, significant criminal activity, or civil unrest, with weak institutions struggling to manage crises.
- Extreme Risk: These countries are actively engaged in military conflict, with severe criminal activity and civil unrest, and state institutions too weak to control militant or insurgent groups.
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Global Guardian’s Risk Map visually represents the varying levels of travel risk across the globe, from low to extreme.
Regional Breakdown of the World’s Most Dangerous Countries
Global Guardian divides the world into five key regions to better analyze and understand the most dangerous countries. These regions—the Americas, Europe, Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and Asia-Pacific (APAC)—share common regional challenges, from climate-related threats to cross-border security issues like militant groups and organized crime.
The Americas: Drug Cartels and Natural Disasters
The security landscape in the Americas is significantly shaped by the extensive illicit drug trade, from production to trafficking, and the destabilizing influence of organized crime, ranging from local gangs to transnational cartels. The annual Atlantic hurricane season, between June and November, also presents serious safety concerns and can cause major travel disruptions, particularly peaking in August and September.
Haiti (Extreme Risk)
Haiti, the poorest nation in the Western Hemisphere, is essentially a failed state grappling with persistent violent social turmoil and extreme gang violence. The situation has dramatically worsened over the past four years, with gangs becoming the dominant force in the country, often linked to political and security factions. Despite international efforts, Haitian police have not regained control of the capital. Violence has spread beyond Cité Soleil to previously safe northern suburbs. Areas like Cité Soleil and Bel-Air are “no-go zones” and must be avoided. Travel should only be considered with a comprehensive, low-profile security detail, after thorough route planning and reconnaissance.
Mexico (High Risk)
Mexico’s ongoing drug war is among the most violent globally, with cartels deeply embedded in various sectors of the economy and society. Cartel conflicts continue to fuel violence throughout Mexico, even impacting previously safer tourist destinations like Cancun, Tulum, and Puerto Vallarta. The current criminal environment is largely driven by the conflict between the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) and the Sinaloa Cartel (CDS), along with other major transnational criminal organizations like Los Zetas, the Gulf Cartel, and the Juarez Cartel. Border regions and Tierra Caliente, including parts of Michoacán, Guerrero, and Mexico states, should be avoided if possible.
Venezuela (High Risk)
Venezuela is exceptionally risky, even by Latin American standards, with one of the world’s highest rates of violent crime, corruption, and social unrest. Caracas, the capital, is a hotspot for violent demonstrations, organized crime, robbery, kidnapping, and homicide. “Express” kidnappings, typically lasting under 48 hours, are common, often targeting individuals leaving hotels, using taxis, or walking in affluent areas. Tourists are frequently targeted for robbery and theft. With potential Western sanctions against the Maduro government due to the controversial 2024 elections, Western travelers, especially Americans, also face the risk of arbitrary detention. Travel to Venezuela is strongly discouraged for Americans, and other travelers should arrange private transportation for all trips.
Europe: The Shadow of War and Terrorism
Most of Europe remains safe for travel, but the Russo-Ukrainian War has significantly altered the security landscape on the continent’s eastern edge. Russia’s resurgence as a threat and the possibility of nuclear weapon use have created considerable uncertainty about Europe’s security future. Furthermore, the increased threat of terrorism across Western Europe since the October 7th attack in Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza adds another layer of concern.
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The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has drastically increased the risk level in Eastern Europe and raised concerns across the continent.
Ukraine (Extreme Risk)
Major Ukrainian cities are consistently under threat from missile and drone attacks. Essential services are unreliable, and the conflict with Russia shows no signs of ending. While the probability remains low, the potential for Russia to use chemical or nuclear weapons cannot be entirely dismissed. Given the high level of uncertainty, all non-essential travel to Ukraine is strongly discouraged. For essential travel, comprehensive evacuation and contingency plans are crucial. Cities like Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa are regularly targeted by drone and missile attacks. Travel near the frontlines in Donbas or the Russian border should be completely avoided.
Russia (High Risk)
Russia is an authoritarian state deeply engaged in what its leadership views as a fundamental conflict with the West. However, the primary risk to travelers in Russia is arbitrary or wrongful detention. Since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has increased its arbitrary detention of foreign nationals, particularly Americans. The Russian government uses these detentions as leverage to secure the release of Russian nationals detained abroad and in sanctions negotiations. Travel to Russia is advised against for nationals of NATO countries due to the risk of arbitrary detention.
Middle East and North Africa: Enduring Conflict and Instability
The MENA region has been at the center of global violent extremism and conflict for decades. Characterized by long-term instability, ethno-religious tensions, and shifting geopolitical dynamics, numerous countries in this region, including some not listed here, should be avoided altogether.
Sudan (Extreme Risk)
The civil war in Sudan between General Mohammed “Hemedti” Dagalo’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan’s Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) is showing no signs of resolution and threatens to create what the World Food Programme warns could be the “world’s largest hunger crisis.” Since the conflict began in April 2023, approximately 15,000 people have died, over 8.2 million have been displaced, and more than 25 million require humanitarian aid. Despite neither side gaining a clear advantage, both factions receive external support from regional countries. The conflict has also involved Ukrainian and Russian special forces, as well as Wagner Group operatives. All non-essential travel outside of Port Sudan is strongly discouraged, and extreme caution is advised in and around Port Sudan.
Yemen (Extreme Risk)
Yemen is among the world’s least developed nations, where 80% of the population (21.6 million people) face food insecurity and lack access to basic services. Despite a decrease in civil war intensity, Yemen remains a fractured state without a central authority holding a monopoly on violence. Healthcare and emergency services are almost non-existent. A long-term resolution to the civil war remains distant, and renewed intense fighting is possible. While travel to Socotra Island is feasible, all travel to mainland Yemen is discouraged, especially areas controlled by the Iran-backed Houthis, who are targets of American and Israeli forces.
Lebanon (Extreme Risk)
Ongoing fighting and airstrikes in Lebanon have displaced over 1.2 million people, devastated critical infrastructure, and strained already fragile medical and logistical systems. If travel to Lebanon is necessary, it is crucial to follow Israeli evacuation orders and avoid southern Beirut, southern Lebanon, and the Bekaa Valley, as these are Hezbollah strongholds and frequent targets of Israeli bombardment. There is also a heightened risk of kidnapping for American travelers.
Global Guardian also advises against travel to the following MENA locations:
- Afghanistan (Extreme Risk)
- Iraq (High Risk)
- Libya (Extreme Risk)
- Mali (High Risk)
- South Sudan (High Risk)
- Somalia (Extreme Risk)
- Syria (Extreme Risk)
- The Gaza Strip (Extreme Risk)
Sub-Saharan Africa: Weak Institutions and Resource Conflicts
Security dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are driven by fragile state institutions, ethno-religious divisions, and conflicts often fueled by abundant natural resources. Regimes in SSA often rely on limited support bases, exploiting ethno-religious divisions rather than addressing them to maintain power. This lack of robust national institutions, combined with ethnic grievances, frequently leads to prolonged insurgencies sustained by resources like diamonds or oil. Persistent conflicts result in both governments and rebels neglecting essential services like healthcare infrastructure.
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Sub-Saharan Africa faces numerous security challenges including insurgencies, political instability, and weak healthcare systems.
Burkina Faso (Extreme Risk)
Burkina Faso is an extremely dangerous destination where local security forces lack full control. Radical jihadist insurgencies have become increasingly active in the Sahel region in recent years. Frequent militant attacks, high crime levels, and an underdeveloped medical system pose significant risks to visitors. Chronic instability, driven by frequent coups, adds considerable uncertainty to Burkina Faso’s political future.
The Central African Republic (Extreme Risk)
The Central African Republic (CAR) is an unstable and underdeveloped country where ongoing armed conflict between the government and rebel groups, high levels of violent crime, and a severely inadequate healthcare system create serious risks for travelers. Violence between rebel groups and the Wagner-Group-backed government has escalated since 2020. The borders with Cameroon, Chad, and the Democratic Republic of Congo are largely controlled by violent non-state actors, experiencing high violent crime and frequent armed clashes. The medical system in CAR is far below international standards. Travel should only be undertaken with a full, low-profile security detail, after thorough route assessments and reconnaissance.
Ethiopia (High Risk)
Ethiopia is politically unstable with deep ethnic divisions and hosts multiple interconnected ethnic armed conflicts. Various ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) control significant parts of regional governments, and the central government is currently fighting the Fano militia in Amhara. The 2020-2022 war in the Tigray region caused over 600,000 deaths, and its political aftermath is central to current inter-regional tensions. Ethiopia’s neighbors, Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan, are frequently involved in Ethiopia’s domestic conflicts, and vice versa. Interstate tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia (and Egypt) are high due to Ethiopian plans to build a port in Somaliland. Conflicts in Ethiopia have previously disrupted food and medicine supply chains, causing acute shortages. Kidnapping risks are high in border regions with Kenya and Somalia.
Asia-Pacific: Natural Disasters and Political Instability
The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region presents diverse political dynamics due to vast geographical and demographic differences. APAC countries often have ethnic and linguistic fault lines that can become divisions in the absence of strong state institutions. Located on the Ring of Fire, the region is also prone to earthquakes and tsunamis, and experiences some of the world’s strongest tropical storms, mainly from April to September in the Indian Ocean.
Myanmar (Extreme Risk)
The 2021 military coup in Myanmar triggered a civil war that continues to escalate. The central government under Tatmadaw (the Burmese military) is fighting a coalition of ethnic armed groups (EAGs) and pro-democracy forces across large parts of the country. Rebel forces have recently expanded their territorial control and launched significant attacks, including airstrikes on Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city, in September. The war has severely disrupted Myanmar’s already weak logistical infrastructure, complicating travel, the supply of basic goods and services, and medical care. All non-essential travel to Myanmar is strongly discouraged.
Pakistan (High Risk)
Pakistan is facing political and financial crises alongside persistent insurgencies and the aftermath of recent environmental disasters. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan is in a high-profile legal battle with the military-backed government of Shehbaz Sharif following his removal from office. Violence has erupted between security forces and Khan’s supporters several times in recent months due to politically motivated legal proceedings. Pakistan also faces a significant risk of default, narrowly avoided by loans from the UAE, China, and the IMF. Record-breaking floods in early 2023 caused tens of billions of dollars in damage, from which Pakistan has yet to recover. Additionally, Pakistan is battling separatists and radical Islamists in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan. Travel to Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is strongly advised against.
Papua New Guinea (High Risk)
Papua New Guinea (PNG) has extremely high crime rates fueled by readily available small arms, widespread lawlessness, endemic corruption, and high unemployment. Ineffective state institutions have resulted in severely underdeveloped transportation, logistics, and healthcare infrastructure, as well as the proliferation of armed gangs and bandits. Socio-economic or tribal violence between groups is common in the highlands and sometimes extends to urban areas. Unrest is frequent in cities like Port Moresby, especially during elections. While travel to PNG is possible, secure transportation is recommended at all times due to the high risk of crime and banditry.
Popular Travel Destinations with Hidden Dangers
While some destinations are explicitly listed as high-risk, certain popular tourist spots also carry significant safety concerns that travelers should be aware of.
Colombia: Medium Risk
The Colombian government has made peace with FARC, but other armed groups, including drug traffickers, remain active nationwide. Petty crime is common in historic city centers, and violent crime and kidnapping for ransom are widespread outside major urban areas. Colombia is also heavily mined, with landmines and unexploded ordnance posing a risk to travelers, particularly in remote areas.
Thailand: Medium Risk
Travel safety in Thailand varies greatly by region. Tourist destinations and developed cities are generally safe, but caution is advised in nightclubs and beach parties, which are hotspots for theft, assault, and sexual violence. Travel to border regions and the southern provinces of Songkhla, Yala, Pattani, and Narathiwat is discouraged due to high crime rates linked to drug trafficking, malaria, infectious diseases, and terrorism.
Italy: Moderate Risk
Italy is seismically active, prone to earthquakes and volcanic activity. A 2009 earthquake near Abruzzo caused significant casualties and damage. Stromboli, an active volcano north of Sicily, can disrupt air travel with little warning due to volcanic ash. While organized crime in Italy primarily targets rival groups, travelers can be caught in the crossfire in both urban and rural areas.
Turkey: Medium Risk
Turkey offers rich history and landscapes, but safety varies. Tourist areas like Istanbul, Antalya, and Cappadocia are generally safe, but petty crime like pickpocketing and scams can occur, especially in crowded places. Vigilance is advised in tourist hotspots and public transport hubs due to active terrorist groups. Regions near the Syrian border in the southeast have higher risks due to ongoing conflicts, terrorism, and political instability. Demonstrations and political protests can occur in major cities, sometimes leading to clashes. Staying informed and avoiding areas of potential unrest is crucial.
Ensuring International Security While Traveling
Traveling to dangerous locations requires proper guidance and support. Global Guardian provides expertise and resources to navigate the complexities of global travel, especially to High- and Extreme-Risk areas. Our experienced security team offers the necessary tools, resources, and real-time information to ensure your safety and peace of mind. Global Guardian has a proven track record of evacuating clients from conflict zones like Ukraine, Afghanistan, Sudan, and Myanmar. Whether for business, tourism, or adventure, Global Guardian is a reliable partner in mitigating risks and enhancing your travel experience.
