Thanksgiving is a cherished holiday, and in 2018, a significant number of Americans were eager to travel and spend it with loved ones. Projections from AAA revealed that a staggering 54.3 million Americans were expected to journey 50 miles or more from home during Thanksgiving that year. This represented a 4.8 percent increase compared to the previous year and marked the highest Thanksgiving travel volume since 2005. Approximately 2.5 million more people were anticipated to travel by roads, skies, rails, and waterways compared to the previous year, indicating a robust travel season. For those opting for road trips, which constituted a large portion of travelers, INRIX, a global mobility analytics company, predicted substantial traffic delays, especially in major US cities.
Thanksgiving Travel Forecast 2018: Record travel numbers expected with significant increase in road and air travel according to AAA and INRIX data.
This surge in travel was attributed to a strong economic climate. “Consumers have a lot to be thankful for this holiday season: higher wages, more disposable income and rising levels of household wealth,” explained Bill Sutherland, AAA Travel senior vice president. “This is translating into more travelers kicking off the holiday season with a Thanksgiving getaway, building on a positive year for the travel industry.” The 2018 Thanksgiving holiday travel period was defined as Wednesday, November 21 to Sunday, November 25.
Key Findings of the 2018 Thanksgiving Travel Forecast
The 2018 Thanksgiving travel forecast highlighted key trends across different modes of transportation.
Overall Travel Volume Increase
The overarching trend was a significant increase in travel volume across all transportation methods, cementing Thanksgiving 2018 as a peak travel period.
Breakdown by Transportation Mode
- Automobiles: The overwhelming majority of travelers, 48.5 million, planned to drive to their Thanksgiving destinations. This represented nearly a 5 percent increase from the previous year, emphasizing the continued dominance of road trips for holiday travel.
- Planes: Air travel saw the most substantial growth rate, with a 5.4 percent increase. An estimated 4.27 million travelers were projected to take to the skies, indicating a strong preference for air travel for longer distances.
- Trains, Buses, and Cruise Ships: These sectors collectively were expected to see a modest increase of 1.4 percent, accommodating 1.48 million passengers. While smaller than road and air travel, this still represented growth in alternative transportation methods.
Thanksgiving Traffic Hotspots and Congestion Predictions
For motorists, Thanksgiving week often translates to navigating through congested roadways. INRIX, collaborating with AAA, provided detailed insights into expected traffic patterns to help drivers plan their journeys effectively.
Worst Days and Times to Drive
INRIX predicted that the most severe traffic congestion would occur during the early evening commute period throughout Thanksgiving week, with traffic starting to build up as early as Monday. Cities like San Francisco, New York City, and Boston were anticipated to experience the most significant delays, potentially quadrupling normal drive times.
“Thanksgiving is one of the busiest holidays for road trips, and this year will be no different,” cautioned Trevor Reed, transportation analyst at INRIX. “Knowing when and where congestion will build can help drivers avoid the stress of sitting in traffic. Our advice to drivers is to avoid commuting times in major cities altogether or plan alternative routes.”
Generally, Thanksgiving Day, Friday, or Saturday were expected to be the least congested days for travel. However, drivers were advised to anticipate increased travel times on Sunday as holiday travelers returned home.
Worst Times to Hit the Road in America’s Largest Cities
| Metro Area | Worst Day for Travel | Worst Time for Travel | Worst Hotspot | Delay Multiplier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | Monday | 2:00 – 4:00 PM | TX-8 Beltway E, TX249 to I69 | 2.75x |
| Boston | Tuesday | 4:00 – 6:00 PM | I-495 S, exit 41 to 33 | 3.5x |
| Seattle | Tuesday | 4:00 – 6:00 PM | I-5 S, exit 178 to 149 | 2x |
| Atlanta | Tuesday | 5:00 – 7:00 PM | I-75 N, exit 216 to 227 | 2.75x |
| Washington, D.C. | Tuesday | 5:00 – 7:00 PM | Capital Beltway Clockwise | 2.5x |
| Detroit | Tuesday | 5:30 – 7:30 PM | US-23 N, exit 35 to 49 | 2.5x |
| New York | Tuesday | 6:00 – 8:00 PM | I-95 W, exit 7 to Hamilton Bridge | 3.5x |
| San Francisco | Wednesday | 1:00 – 3:00 PM | I-680 N, exit 8 to 21 | 4x |
| Chicago | Wednesday | 2:30 – 4:30 PM | I-94 W, exit 40A to 1 | 2x |
| Los Angeles | Wednesday | 2:30 – 4:30 PM | I-5 S, exit 79 to 54B | 2x |
Source: INRIX
Airport Delays
Air travelers were also advised to factor in potential delays, not only at airport security lines but also during their commute to the airport. INRIX anticipated that travel times to major airports could increase by as much as 90 minutes.
Worst Travel Times to America’s Busiest Airports
| Metro Area | Airport Route | Worst Time for Travel | Travel Time at Peak |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas | Downtown to DFW via TX-183 W | Monday, 5:00 – 7:00 PM | 30 min |
| San Francisco | Downtown to SFO via US-101 S | Monday, 5:00 – 7:00 PM | 24 min |
| Denver | Downtown to DIA via I-70 E and Pena Blvd | Monday, 5:30 – 7:30 PM | 55 min |
| New York | Downtown to JFK via Long Island Expressway East | Tuesday, 5:30 – 7:30 PM | 1 hr 19 min |
| Los Angeles | Downtown to LAX via I-110 S | Tuesday, 7:00 – 9:00 PM | 58 min |
| Atlanta | Downtown to ALT via I-75 S | Tuesday, 7:00 – 9:00 PM | 34 min |
| Charlotte | Downtown to CLT via US-74 W | Tuesday, 8:00 – 10:00 PM | 21 min |
| Las Vegas | Downtown to LAS via I-15 S | Wednesday, 8:00 – 9:00 AM | 27 min |
| Chicago | Downtown to ORD via Kennedy Expressway West | Wednesday, 1:30 – 3:30 PM | 1 hr 37 min |
| Seattle | Downtown to SEA via I-5 S | Wednesday, 8:00 – 10:00 PM | 41 min |
Source: INRIX
Travel Costs: Gas Prices, Flights, Car Rentals, Hotels
Understanding travel costs is crucial for budget-conscious holiday travelers. The 2018 forecast provided insights into gas prices, flight costs, and accommodation rates.
Gas Prices on the Rise
Motorists faced the highest Thanksgiving gas prices in four years. The national average was $2.79 per gallon as of November 1, which was 31 cents higher than the previous year. Despite the increase, AAA gas price expert Jeanette Casselano noted, “Motorists have become accustomed to this year’s more expensive gas prices and won’t let higher fuel costs deter them from taking Thanksgiving road trips.”
Best and Worst Days to Fly & Flight Booking Tips
AAA’s analysis of flight booking data revealed that the Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving were typically the most expensive and crowded days to fly. In contrast, Thanksgiving Day itself usually offered the lowest average ticket prices and lighter crowds. For travelers seeking savings, flying on Thanksgiving morning was suggested as a viable option.
| Day | 3-Year Average Ticket Price | Expected Crowds |
|---|---|---|
| Monday (November 19, 2018) | $465 | Moderate |
| Tuesday (November 20, 2018) | $509 | Heavy |
| Wednesday (November 21, 2018) | $507 | Heavy |
| Thursday (November 22, 2018) | $446 | Light |
The optimal booking window for Thanksgiving flights in 2018 was between September 23 and October 25. Procrastinators might still find deals closer to the date, but availability was expected to be limited.
Car Rental and Hotel Costs
Good news for travelers needing rental cars: the average daily rate was $63, a 10 percent decrease from the previous year. AAA Three Diamond hotels also saw a price decrease, with an average nightly rate of $166, down by six percent. However, AAA Two Diamond hotels experienced a six percent increase, averaging $124 per night.
Top Thanksgiving Destinations
Many Thanksgiving travelers gravitate towards popular US cities, theme parks, and warmer climates. Orlando, New York City, and Anaheim topped the list of most popular destinations for Thanksgiving 2018, based on AAA booking data. Destinations like Punta Cana, Dallas/Fort Worth, and Miami were gaining popularity compared to the previous year.
Top 10 Thanksgiving Destinations:
- Orlando, Florida
- New York, New York
- Anaheim, California
- Punta Cana, Dominican Republic
- Las Vegas, Nevada
- Cancun, Mexico
- Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas
- Honolulu, Hawaii
- Washington, DC
- Miami, Florida
AAA Roadside Assistance and Travel App
With millions on the move, AAA anticipated a busy Thanksgiving for roadside assistance. They projected rescuing nearly 360,000 motorists. Common issues were expected to be dead batteries, lockouts, and flat tires. AAA recommended pre-trip vehicle maintenance to minimize breakdowns.
To aid travelers, AAA highlighted its mobile app, offering features like route mapping, gas price locators, member discounts, travel booking, roadside assistance requests, and AAA Approved Auto Repair facility finders.
Conclusion
The 2018 Thanksgiving travel forecast painted a picture of record-breaking travel volume driven by a strong economy. While this meant more people could celebrate the holiday with loved ones, it also implied navigating potentially significant traffic congestion and higher travel costs in some areas. By understanding the predicted travel patterns and utilizing resources like the AAA Mobile app, travelers could better prepare for the Thanksgiving holiday rush and ensure a smoother journey.
