WASHINGTON, DC (May 13, 2024) – Get ready for busy roads and airports! AAA Travel is forecasting a significant surge in travel this Memorial Day weekend, with an estimated 43.8 million people nationwide expected to journey 50 miles or more from home. This projection marks a robust 4% increase compared to last year and positions 2024 as potentially the second-busiest Memorial Day travel period on record, just shy of 2005’s peak of 44 million travelers. For those planning to utilize AAA for their travel needs, this signifies a period of high demand and highlights the importance of early bookings and travel preparedness.
“The travel numbers we’re anticipating for this Memorial Day weekend are levels we haven’t seen in almost two decades,” states Paula Twidale, Senior Vice President of AAA Travel. “We are forecasting an additional million travelers compared to 2019, signaling not only a full recovery to pre-pandemic travel volumes but also the start of what promises to be an exceptionally busy summer travel season. AAA is prepared to support travelers with resources and services to ensure smooth and enjoyable trips.”
Chart showing Memorial Day Travel Forecast
Record-Breaking Road Trips Expected
If you’re planning a road trip this Memorial Day, you’re in good company! AAA Travel anticipates a record 38.4 million people will hit the roads, making it the highest number of car travelers for this holiday since AAA began tracking in 2000. This represents a 4% increase over last year and a 1.9% rise from 2019 figures. The appeal of car travel lies in its inherent convenience and flexibility, allowing travelers to set their own pace and explore destinations at their leisure. AAA car rental partner Hertz reports experiencing high rental demand in popular destinations such as Orlando, Denver, Atlanta, Boston, and Las Vegas, with Thursday, May 23rd, and Friday, May 24th, expected to be the peak pick-up days. Travelers utilizing AAA for car rentals can benefit from exclusive member discounts and services to enhance their road trip experience.
Gas Prices and Driving Considerations
Drivers can expect gas prices this Memorial Day weekend to be roughly consistent with last year, with a national average around $3.57 per gallon. While prices saw an increase this spring, they have stabilized in recent weeks. However, with the summer driving season commencing, prices could potentially edge higher. Global events, including ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, introduce volatility to the oil market, which could influence fuel costs. AAA recommends drivers utilize resources like the AAA Gas Prices tool to stay informed about price fluctuations and plan their fuel stops strategically.
Airports Anticipate Passenger Surge
Airports are bracing for a significant influx of travelers this Memorial Day weekend. AAA projects 3.51 million air travelers, a 4.8% increase from last year and a substantial 9% jump compared to 2019. This will be the busiest Memorial Day weekend at airports since 2005, marking a near return to peak air travel volumes. Airfare prices are generally on par with last year, with AAA booking data indicating a modest 1% to 2% increase for domestic flights. Air travel costs are influenced by various factors, including destination, flight routes, and fare class. Travelers looking for cost-effective options might consider flexible travel dates or less popular flight times. For AAA members, booking flights through AAA Travel can offer benefits such as travel insurance options and assistance with flight disruptions.
Other Modes of Transportation See Growth
Beyond cars and planes, other transportation modes, including buses, cruises, and trains, are also experiencing a resurgence. AAA forecasts 1.9 million people will utilize these alternatives, a 5.6% increase compared to last year. “This travel sector was significantly impacted during the pandemic, but we are now witnessing a strong rebound to 2019 levels,” Twidale noted. “The pent-up demand for travel is evident, and long holiday weekends provide ideal opportunities for getaways, with many leveraging AAA’s diverse travel options.”
Best and Worst Driving Times & Congestion Hotspots
Transportation data provider INRIX advises drivers to travel early on Thursday or Friday to avoid commuter traffic. For return trips on Sunday or Monday, it’s best to avoid afternoon hours when traffic is expected to peak.
“Travel times could be up to 90% longer than usual. Travelers should utilize real-time traffic apps, 511 services, and local news updates to minimize time spent in traffic congestion,” advises Bob Pishue, transportation analyst at INRIX.
| Best and Worst Times to Travel by Car |
|---|
| Date |
| Thursday, May 23 |
| Friday, May 24 |
| Saturday, May 25 |
| Sunday, May 26 |
| Monday, May 27 |
Source: INRIX
| Peak Congestion by Metro |
|---|
| Metro |
| Atlanta |
| Boston |
| Chicago |
| Denver |
| Detroit |
| Houston |
| Los Angeles |
| Minneapolis |
| New York |
| Philadelphia |
| Portland |
| San Diego |
| San Francisco |
| Seattle |
| Tampa |
| Washington, DC |
Source: INRIX
Top Travel Destinations
This Memorial Day weekend, popular destinations include theme parks and entertainment hubs in Orlando, New York, Las Vegas, and Southern California. Alaska cruises are driving popularity for Seattle, Anchorage, and Vancouver. Florida beaches and cruise ports are also expected to be crowded. European cities dominate the international travel list. AAA booking data reveals the following top 10 domestic and international destinations:
| DOMESTIC | INTERNATIONAL |
|---|---|
| Orlando, FL | Rome, Italy |
| Seattle, WA | Vancouver, B.C., Canada |
| New York, NY | London, England |
| Las Vegas, NV | Paris, France |
| Anaheim/Los Angeles, CA | Dublin, Ireland |
| Denver, CO | Amsterdam, Netherlands |
| Anchorage, AK | Athens, Greece |
| Fort Lauderdale, FL | Barcelona, Spain |
| Miami, FL | St. George, Bermuda |
| Boston, MA | Edinburgh, Scotland |
Emerging Travel Trends
Looking ahead to summer and beyond, AAA Travel agents are observing several key travel trends:
- Bucket List Travel: Travelers are prioritizing once-in-a-lifetime, aspirational trips.
- Milestone Celebrations: Families are increasingly booking trips to commemorate anniversaries, retirements, and family reunions.
- Asian Destinations: Interest in Asia travel is growing, particularly to Japan.
- Solo Travel: More individuals, especially women, are embracing solo travel experiences.
- Luxury Travel: Demand for high-end cruises and tours is on the rise.
- Rail Vacations: Rail travel across New England, Canada, and Europe is gaining popularity.
- Nature and Adventure: Trips to destinations like Antarctica, Africa, and the South Pacific are attracting adventure-seeking travelers.
Travel Agent Insights
A recent AAA travel agent survey provides valuable insights into current traveler priorities:
- Travel Insurance: 51% of agents report increased interest in travel protection and insurance.
- Vacation Preferences: AAA travel agents highlight the most sought-after vacation types:
- Ocean Cruises: 77% of agents cite strong demand.
- All-Inclusive Resorts: 70% of agents note high interest.
- River Cruises: 67% of agents report significant bookings.
Holiday Travel Forecast Methodology
AAA, in collaboration with S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI), utilizes a unique methodology to forecast domestic travel volumes. This model incorporates economic variables from SPGMI’s databases, including macroeconomic factors, asset prices, and travel-related indicators such as gasoline prices and airline travel data. AAA and SPGMI have historical travel volume data going back to 2000.
Historical travel volume estimates are sourced from DK SHIFFLET’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM, a comprehensive study of U.S. travel behavior. DK SHIFFLET surveys over 50,000 U.S. households monthly to gather detailed travel data, enabling accurate estimations of visitor volume, spending, and travel trend identification.
The travel forecast is presented in person-trips and encompasses total U.S. holiday travel volume and transportation mode projections. The forecast for this report was finalized the week of April 15, 2024.
*Memorial Day Holiday Travel Period
The Memorial Day holiday travel period for this forecast spans five days, from Thursday, May 23 to Monday, May 27, 2024.
AAA Travel Agent Survey Methodology
AAA clubs conducted surveys with a random sample of travel agents between March 18 and March 29, 2024, to assess recent traveler trends. The survey included 186 AAA agent responses from 13 AAA clubs, representing 97% of AAA membership as of February 2024.
About AAA
Established in 1902, AAA has evolved from an automotive advocacy group into one of North America’s largest membership organizations. AAA provides a wide array of services, including roadside assistance, travel planning, member discounts, and financial and insurance products, enhancing the lives of 64 million members across North America. To discover more about AAA services or to become a member, visit AAA.com.
About S&P Global
S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) is a leading provider of essential intelligence, empowering governments, businesses, and individuals with data, expertise, and technology for informed decision-making. S&P Global offers credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics, and workflow solutions across global capital, commodity, and automotive markets. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com.
About DKSA
DK SHIFFLET, an MMGY Global company, provides the industry’s most comprehensive database on U.S. resident travel. Data is collected monthly from a representative U.S. sample, adding over 60,000 traveling households annually, and is utilized by leading travel organizations for strategic planning.
About INRIX
INRIX, founded in 2004, is a pioneer in intelligent mobility solutions, transforming data from connected devices and vehicles into mobility insights. INRIX provides data and analytics to cities, businesses, and individuals to enhance mobility, improve safety, and promote greener transportation. Learn more at INRIX.com.
